Iran Conundrum

Iran has been trying to fend off pressure from the United Nations. Knowing very well that sanctions imposed can cripple the economy, Iran has been trying to divert attention. Recently Iran exchanged nuclear material with Brazil and Turkey. The deal involved exchange of Iran’s enriched uranium to nuclear material for the nuclear research facility at Tehran. This was supposed to be a hint to the west and especially United States that Iran has peaceful intentions. Recently at the sidelines of the United Nations Security Council meet Iranian leaders met with the prominent leaders of the Security Council. The discussions were labelled as a success as it was forecasted that Ian has managed to wiggle out of a tight corner.

But apparently all these ploys by Iran have not worked.  On Tuesday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the permanent five members of the Security Council had agreed upon a new draft UN Security Council resolution on sanctions. Whether the draft has the support of the no permanent members remains to be seen. Brazil and Turkey are the non permanent members of the Security Council that might support Iran. The United States has always maintained that nothing but a complete stop of the nuclear enrichment system will prevent sanctions. Brazil and Turkey had tried to come up with a diplomatic solution to the whole issue, but their efforts were in vain. Observers feel that these sanctions have come at a bad time. Brazil and Turkey just were not given enough time in their reconciliatory efforts and just when they were getting somewhere the sanctions were announced.  The United States and its allies are determined to put pressure on Iran. The thought of a nuclear armed Iran is something that Washington cannot live with. For now though the United States is not using the military option and is hoping that a economic embargo will do the trick.

Back home in Iran President Ahmedinejad has been criticised by hardliners back home for not maintaining a strong stance. Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, said the deal was “an obvious backtrack from Iran’s announced strategy. Popular English news daily which is pro- Ayaollah Khamenei stated “This declaration is not a victory for Iran but it is an obvious backtrack against the bullying demands of the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran should not accept it.” But, this reaction is not as bad as when it was when the previous efforts at the exchange deal fell apart.

The Institute for science and International security has made a crucial observation that eventually weakened Iran’s case. The original deal was formulated back in December and it required Iran to exchange 1200kgs of low enriched uranium with high grade uranium. 1200kgs formed the bulk of Iran’s uranium and it being exchanged was quite an assurance that Iran was not looking to make nuclear weapons. But since October Iran has doubled its stockpile of enriched uranium. It might have more than 2500 kg of enriched uranium. No wonder the world is worried.